نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 استاد یار و عضو هئیت علمی دانشگاه و پزوهشگاه عالی دفاع ملی و مدیریت راهبردی
2 عضو هئیت علمی دانشگاه و پزوهشگاه عالی دفاع ملی و مدیریت راهبردی
3 دانشجوی دکتری مدیریت راهبردی آیندهپژوهی دانشگاه و پزوهشگاه عالی دفاع ملی و مدیریت راهبردی. نویسنده مسئول
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
The defensive area, in addition to the ability to manage gradual changes, must be able to quickly diagnose the discontinuity[1] and manage a mutation shift by resorting to a defensive strategy.
In the study, qualitative and qualitative methods (mixed-discovery) are used to realize the objectives of the research. In the qualitative part, based on the systematic literature review[2] of strategic-defensive foresight have been used, as well as profound interviews with 12 competents and experts, have been extracted all dimensions and components, and sub-components of strategic-defensive foresight. In the next level, in order to explain the validity and explanation of correlation dimensions and components, sub-components and observing its importance and relations by aid of K-S statistical analysis and partial least squares analysis with confirmatory structural equation (PLS) analysis has been made to confirm the views of 31 experienced experts in the confirmation of the validity and explanation of the relationship between variables. Cronbach Alpha and composite reliability of the research are equivalent to 0/796 and 0/798 respectively.
The findings of the research, T level and line coefficient, factorial loads and explained variances, in the viewpoints of the experts for the three dimensions, sub-components including environment polarizing, universal trends, benefits and the power of universal actors, states strategy, military strategy and doctrine of minatories and etc.; and avoiding from undesirable prospect, flexible and case strategy, roadmap formulating, and feedback have been given.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
الف. منابع فارسی
ب. منابع لاتین
)