نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری، نویسنده مسئول
2 استاد دانشگاه امام صادق (ع)
3 دانشیاردانشگاه صدا و سیما
4 دانشیار دانشگاه تهران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
The new insights that the scenarios of guiding the public opinion of the Iranian society on the horizon of 1410 create for the decision-making managers in the fields of social security, media and cultural policy-making strengthen strategic thinking and prevent surprises in the face of future phenomena. The main issue of this research is to explain the complex dimensions and conditions of managing and guiding public opinion in Iranian society with a forward-looking approach.
The nature of the present research is qualitative and its main goal is to gain new insights into the management and guidance of Iranian public opinion to achieve the right approach to this important social phenomenon. In this way, Using the methodological capabilities of the science of future studies and the knowledge and experience of experts in this field, the most important actors in the field have been identified and introduced. Furthermore; discovering the effective factors on guiding the public opinion of the Iranian society in a ten-year horizon, key drivers and the main uncertainties in this field are among the valuable achievements of the research.
In this study, in addition to identifying and analyzing the five scenarios of "life in hell", "emotional divorce", "fire under the ashes", "patriarchy" and "life becomes sweet", four important Wild Cards in guiding public opinion in Iranian society in Horizon 1410 was determined, than If any of these happen, the conditions of society will change completely and the scenarios will need to be rewritten.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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